Review and Prospect of the hottest machinery indus

2022-10-14
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Looking back and looking forward to the machinery industry in 2012

in the coming 2012, the difficulties in the economic operation of the machinery industry have increased sharply, and the growth rate of major economic indicators has continued to fall rapidly following the downward trend in 2011. The industry has shifted from the high-speed growth period of nearly a decade during the "Tenth Five Year Plan" and "Eleventh Five Year Plan" to the medium and low-speed growth period

looking forward to 2013, the business environment will still be relatively severe, the domestic demand and export situation are not expected to significantly warm up, the market pressure on structural adjustment and upgrading will not be weakened, and the whole industry still needs to be prepared to continue to live a tight life

the more difficult the situation is, the more dialectical and objective perspective is needed to examine the industry situation. The reduction in growth rate is an adjustment under the background of the pursuit of economic development from speed to quality. From this perspective, the overall response and upgrading trend of machinery enterprises this year is gratifying, and the market forcing mechanism is producing the expected results

the growth rate of exports to China is slowing down; The long-term development future of China's machinery industry should be full of confidence. The market-oriented reform of China's machinery industry has been relatively in-depth, and the invisible hand of the market has played and will continue to play a great role in the development of the industry; If coupled with the strong guidance of industrial policy, which is only the hand of form, the process of "from big to strong" of the machinery industry that has been started will inevitably continue to move forward

in 2012, the growth rate of the machinery industry declined, and the six major economic indicators such as industrial added value, total output value, realized profits, export earning foreign exchange, product output and fixed asset investment on the overhaul of the law were also included in the legislative plan. At the same time, the differentiation of the industry situation and the difficulties of economic operation increased

(1) the growth rate of total profit fell significantly faster than that of production and sales

the cumulative amount from January to September 2012 was 811.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 3.45%. The profit growth rate is much lower than the production and sales growth rate (12%) in the same period, which is rare for many years

(2) the growth rate of total industrial output value fell by more than 10 percentage points year-on-year

from January to October, the total industrial output value was 14.9 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.91%. The growth rate was the lowest in recent 10 years (except 2009), which was 13 percentage points lower than that in 2011

(3) the growth rate of industrial added value decreased significantly

from January to September 2012: the machinery industry increased by 8.6% year-on-year; 1.3 percentage points lower than the national average industrial growth rate (9.9%); The machinery industry ranked 10th among the 12 industrial sectors in terms of growth rate of added value, only higher than the petrochemical industry (7.9%) and the power industry (4.6%)

(4) the growth rate of export earning foreign exchange decreased significantly

from January to September 2012, the export earning foreign exchange of machinery industry was 263.6 billion US dollars, an increase of 11.48% year-on-year. Compared with the growth rate of the same period last year, the growth rate fell by more than 10 percentage points. In particular, the export situation fell sharply in the second half of the year. The year-on-year growth rate in July, August and September fell to 4.69%, 2.47% and 7.51% respectively. The growth rate has fallen below 10%, which is rare in recent years and very disturbing

(5) the growth rate of fixed asset investment fell significantly

the machinery industry completed a total fixed asset investment of 2858.8 billion yuan from January to October, with a year-on-year increase of 26.00%. Although the growth rate continued to be 5.3 and 2.9 percentage points higher than that of the whole country (20.7%) and the manufacturing industry (23.1%), it fell by about 10 percentage points compared with the same period last year

the decline in the growth rate of fixed assets indicates that the heat of capacity expansion has cooled significantly

(6) the output of one third of the main products decreased

from January to October, the output of 72 of the 120 main products increased year-on-year, accounting for 60%; The yield of 48 species decreased, accounting for 40%. The output of 40% of products has declined, which is rare in recent years

prediction of the annual growth rate of the machinery industry in 2012

the growth rate of the machinery industry has basically bottomed out at present, and it is unlikely to continue to decline significantly in the future. It will continue to operate at low speed at the bottom in the fourth quarter. The whole year is expected to show a pattern of "early decline to find the bottom, late low stabilization or slight recovery"

although the growth rate of major economic indicators of the machinery industry has dropped significantly from the previous year, I hope it can help you, but it is still expected to achieve double-digit growth throughout the year. Among them, the growth rate of production and sales is expected to be about 14%; The profit growth is expected to be about 5%; Export growth is expected to be around 10%

the GDP growth rate of software and hardware in 2012 fell quarter by quarter, and may rise slightly in the fourth quarter. It is expected to be about 7.8% for the whole year. Although it is higher than the target value of 7.5% set at the beginning of the year, it is significantly lower than the actual growth rate of previous years, indicating that the economic growth rate has bid farewell to the high growth stage of about 10%; It is estimated that the GDP growth rate in 2013 will be about 8%, which will be slightly higher than this year

to sum up, we should not be too pessimistic about the domestic demand situation because we should not only have enough ideological preparation for the difficult situation of sluggish domestic demand in 2013, but also there are subjective and objective conditions for moderate demand recovery

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